Bitcoin's fourth halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. At the time, the crypto media was awash with predictions — some forecasting a rapid price surge to $200,000 or beyond, others warning of a mining industry collapse. Two years on, we have enough data to assess what actually happened and what it tells us about the next halving in 2028.
What Is the Bitcoin Halving?
Bitcoin's protocol is designed to produce a fixed total supply of 21 million coins. To achieve this, the reward paid to miners for adding a new block to the blockchain is halved approximately every four years (specifically, every 210,000 blocks). This mechanism, built into Bitcoin's code by Satoshi Nakamoto, is designed to create a predictable, disinflationary supply schedule that mimics the scarcity properties of precious metals.
The first halving in 2012 reduced the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. The second in 2016 reduced it to 12.5 BTC. The third in 2020 reduced it to 6.25 BTC. The fourth in April 2024 reduced it to 3.125 BTC. The fifth halving, expected in 2028, will reduce it to 1.5625 BTC.
As of June 2026, approximately 19.7 million of the 21 million total Bitcoin have been mined. The remaining 1.3 million will be mined over the next 120 years, with the final Bitcoin expected to be mined around 2140.
What Actually Happened After the 2024 Halving
The price history following the 2024 halving broadly followed the pattern of previous halvings, though with some important differences. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of approximately $73,000 in March 2024, just before the halving — driven in part by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024, which brought significant institutional capital into the market.
After the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin initially pulled back before resuming its upward trend. By November 2024, it had crossed $100,000 for the first time, driven by a combination of the post-halving supply reduction, continued ETF inflows, and a generally risk-on market environment following the US presidential election. By early 2025, Bitcoin had reached approximately $108,000 before entering a correction phase.
As of June 2026, Bitcoin trades at approximately $95,000 — down from its peak but significantly above pre-halving levels. The pattern of a pre-halving run-up, post-halving consolidation, and then a sustained bull market over the following 12–18 months has held, broadly, for the fourth time.
The Mining Industry: Adaptation, Not Collapse
Pre-halving predictions of a mining industry collapse proved unfounded. The halving did cause significant stress for less efficient miners — those operating older hardware in regions with higher electricity costs saw their margins compressed to the point of unprofitability. A wave of consolidation followed, with smaller operations shutting down or being acquired by larger, more efficient players.
But the mining industry as a whole adapted. The hash rate — a measure of the total computational power securing the Bitcoin network — dipped briefly after the halving before recovering to new all-time highs by mid-2024. The miners who survived were those with the most efficient hardware (primarily the latest generation of ASICs from Bitmain and MicroBT) and access to the cheapest electricity (primarily from renewable sources in regions like Texas, Iceland, and parts of Central Asia).
The long-term trend toward renewable energy in Bitcoin mining accelerated after the halving. With margins compressed, electricity cost became the dominant variable in mining profitability, and renewable energy — particularly stranded or curtailed power that would otherwise be wasted — became increasingly attractive. Industry estimates suggest that approximately 54% of Bitcoin mining now uses renewable energy, up from around 40% in 2022.
Transaction Fees: The Long-Term Question
The most important long-term question raised by the halving is not about price — it's about transaction fees. As the block subsidy continues to decline with each halving, Bitcoin's security model increasingly depends on transaction fees to compensate miners. If transaction fees are insufficient to incentivise mining, the network's security could be compromised.
The 2024 halving provided some encouraging data on this front. The introduction of Ordinals and Bitcoin-native NFTs in 2023 created a new source of fee revenue, and the launch of the Runes protocol in April 2024 — timed to coincide with the halving — generated significant fee activity. On the day of the halving itself, transaction fees exceeded the block subsidy for the first time in Bitcoin's history.
Whether this level of fee activity can be sustained and grown over the long term remains an open question. The Bitcoin community is divided on the appropriate response: some advocate for increasing the block size to accommodate more transactions and generate more fee revenue, while others argue that Bitcoin's value as a settlement layer depends on maintaining its current constraints.
What to Expect from the 2028 Halving
The fifth halving, expected in early 2028, will reduce the block reward to 1.5625 BTC. Based on historical patterns, the period leading up to the halving is likely to see increased price appreciation as market participants anticipate the supply reduction. The post-halving period has historically been characterised by a bull market that peaks 12–18 months after the event.
However, each halving occurs in a different market context, and past patterns are not guarantees of future performance. The 2028 halving will occur with Bitcoin already widely held by institutional investors, with spot ETFs providing easy access for retail investors, and with a regulatory environment that is significantly clearer than it was in previous cycles. These factors could amplify or dampen the historical pattern.
What is certain is that the halving will continue to reduce the rate of new Bitcoin supply, and that the long-term supply schedule — fixed and predictable — remains one of Bitcoin's most distinctive properties as an asset.